COURSE UNIT TITLE

: EVERYDAY PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

DEGREE PROGRAMMES

Description of Individual Course Units

Course Unit Code Course Unit Title Type Of Course D U L ECTS
IST 3113 EVERYDAY PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS ELECTIVE 3 0 0 5

Offered By

Statistics

Level of Course Unit

First Cycle Programmes (Bachelor's Degree)

Course Coordinator

PROFESSOR DOCTOR BURCU HÜDAVERDI AKTAŞ

Offered to

Statistics
Statistics(Evening)

Course Objective

The objective of the course is to introduce students with at least a fairly decent mathematical background in elementary algebra to this world of probability, to the way of thinking typical of probability, and the kinds of problems to which probability can be applied. Using examples from a wide variety of fields to motivate the discussion of concepts.

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

1   Solving real-life problems with the elements of probability.
2   Understanding counting problems such as birthdays and lotteries problems.
3   Understanding the conditional probability rules for real-life problems.
4   Discussing the idea of independence with applications.
5   Using concepts of random variables and mathematical expectations for some games.
6   Learning some pleasant properties of normal distributions and the central limit theorem.
7   Applying Probability to Make Decisions.

Mode of Delivery

Face -to- Face

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

None

Recomended Optional Programme Components

None

Course Contents

Week Subject Description
1 Elements of probability.
2 Car Cars, Goats,and Sample Spaces, Nutshell history and philosophy lesson, Discrete Sample Space: Let those dice roll.
3 How to Count: Birthdays and Lotteries.
4 Exercises.
5 Conditional Probability: From Kings to Prisoners, Some probability rules.
6 Does the king have a sister The prisoner's dilemma.
7 The Formula of Thomas Bayes and Other Matters, On blood tests and Bayes's formula.
8 Application
9 An urn problem, Laplace's law of succession.
10 The Idea of Independence, with Applications, Independence of events.
11 On the likelihood of alien life, Rare events do occur.
12 Random Variables, Expectations, and More About Games, The game of chuck-a-luck and de Mere's problem of dice, The expectation of a random variable, Fair and unfair games.
13 The normal distributions, Some pleasant properties of normal distributions, The Central Limit Theorem, Why so many quantities may be approximately normal.
14 Computers and Probability, Applying Probability to Make Decisions.

Recomended or Required Reading

Textbook(s):
Richar Isaac, The Pleasures of Probability,. Springer, New York, 1995.
Supplementary Book(s):
Michael M. Woolfson, Everyday Probability And Statistics (Health, Elections, Gambling and War), Imperial College Press, 2008.

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

Lecture format, built around the textbook readings with numerous examples chosen to illustrate theoretical concepts. Lots of drill with emphasis on practice. Questions are encouraged and discussion of material stressed.

Assessment Methods

SORTING NUMBER SHORT CODE LONG CODE FORMULA
1 MTE MIDTERM EXAM
2 ASG ASSIGNMENT
3 FIN FINAL EXAM
4 FCGR FINAL COURSE GRADE (RESIT) MTE * 0.40 + ASG * 0.20 + FIN * 0.40
5 RST RESIT
6 FCGR FINAL COURSE GRADE (RESIT) MTE * 0.40 + ASG * 0.20 + RST * 0.40


*** Resit Exam is Not Administered in Institutions Where Resit is not Applicable.

Further Notes About Assessment Methods

None

Assessment Criteria

Evaluation of homework and exams.

Language of Instruction

English

Course Policies and Rules

Attendance to at least 70% for the lectures is an essential requirement of this course and is the responsibility of the student. It is necessary that attendance to the lecture and homework delivery must be on time. Any unethical behavior that occurs either in presentations or in exams will be dealt with as outlined in school policy. You can find the undergraduate policy at http://web.deu.edu.tr/fen.

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

Prof. Dr. Burcu Hüdaverdi
DEU Fen Fakültesi Istatistik Bölümü
e-posta: burcu.hudavredi@deu.edu.tr
Tel: 0232 301 85 58

Office Hours

To be announced.

Work Placement(s)

None

Workload Calculation

Activities Number Time (hours) Total Work Load (hours)
Lectures 14 3 42
Preparations before/after weekly lectures 14 1 14
Preparation for midterm exam 1 24 24
Preparation for final exam 1 25 25
Preparing assignments 3 4 12
Final 1 2 2
Midterm 1 2 2
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours) 121

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

PO/LOPO.1PO.2PO.3PO.4PO.5PO.6PO.7PO.8PO.9PO.10PO.11PO.12PO.13PO.14
LO.155444
LO.255444
LO.355444
LO.455444
LO.555444
LO.655444
LO.755444

CONTACT INFORMATION
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Cumhuriyet Bulvarı No: 144 35210 Alsancak / İZMİR
Phone: +90(232) 412 12 12 - Fax: +90 (232) 464 81 35

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