Dokuz Eylül University Information Package / Courses Catalog

Description of Individual Course Units

Course Unit Code	Course Unit Title	Type Of Course	D	U	L	ECTS
IST 4112	PROBABILITY IN RISK ANALYSIS	ELECTIVE	3	0	0	5

Offered By

Statistics

Level of Course Unit

First Cycle Programmes (Bachelor's Degree)

Course Coordinator

PROFESSOR DOCTOR GÜÇKAN YAPAR

Offered to

Statistics
Statistics(Evening)

Course Objective

The main objective of this course is to teach the fundamentals of finance with necessary mathematical operations in financial mathematics. Also another goal which is willing to reach as teaching students satisfactory knowledge to choose wisely among alternatives which are emerge in financial circumstances.

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

1	Students will be able to review the theory of probability and statistical inference.
2	To provide students with a comprehensive perspective on risk management and insurance concepts, tools, and techniques;
3	Students will be able to develop analytical and integrative thinking in understanding and implementing the risk management practices;
4	Students will be able to use insurance and probability theory together in real life practices.
5	Students will be able to apply real data this methods of analysis.

Mode of Delivery

Face -to- Face

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

None

Recomended Optional Programme Components

None

Course Contents

Week	Subject	Description
1	Statistical Distribution useful in general insurance work.
2	Inferences from general insurance data.
3	The Risk Premium; claim frequency and claim size.
4	Claim settlement pattern and excesses and excess of loss reinsurance.
5	Experience rating, credibility theory.
6	A Bayesian approach to the updating of claim frequency rates. No claim discount.
7	Simulation; random numbers and simulation. Random observations on some distributions. A simulation example.
8	Midterm exam
9	Simulation of an NCD system, Limitations of the model; sensitivity analysis. Estimation of outstanding claim provision.
10	The separation Methods.
11	The Chain-ladder Methods/ IBNR.
12	Elementary Risk Theory.
13	Portfolio with constant claim size. Variable claim size.
14	The expectation and variance of the total claim amount.

Recomended or Required Reading

Textbook(s):
HOSSACK I.B., POLLARD J.H. and ZEHNWIRTH B., 1999, Introductory Statistics with
Applications in General Insurance, 2nd Edition, Cambridge.

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

The course consists of lecture, class discussion and problem solving.

Assessment Methods

SORTING NUMBER	SHORT CODE	LONG CODE	FORMULA
1	VZ	Vize
2	FN	Final
3	BNS	BNS	VZ * 0.40 + FN * 0.60
4	BUT	Bütünleme Notu
5	BBN	Bütünleme Sonu Başarı Notu	VZ * 0.40 + BUT * 0.60

Further Notes About Assessment Methods

None

Assessment Criteria

To be announced.

Language of Instruction

Turkish

Course Policies and Rules

Student responsibilities:Attendance to at least 70% for the lectures is an essential requirement of this course and is the responsibility of the student. It is necessary that attendance to the lecture and homework delivery must be on time. Any unethical behavior that occurs either in presentations or in exams will be dealt with as outlined in school policy. You can find the undergraduate policy at http://web.deu.edu.tr/fen

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

DEU Faculty of Science, Department of Statistic
e-mail: guckan.yapar@deu.edu.tr
0232 301 85 59

Office Hours

To be announced.

Work Placement(s)

None

Workload Calculation

Activities	Number	Time (hours)	Total Work Load (hours)
Lectures	13	3	39
Preparations before/after weekly lectures	12	2	24
Preparation for midterm exam	1	20	20
Preparation for final exam	1	28	28
Final	1	2	2
Midterm	1	2	2
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours)			115

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

PO/LO	PO.1	PO.3	PO.4	PO.8	PO.12	PO.13
LO.1	5	5	5	4	5	3
LO.2	5	5	5	4	5	3
LO.3	5	5	5	4	5	3
LO.4	5	5	5	4	5	3
LO.5	5	5	5	4	5	3

COURSE UNIT TITLE

DEGREE PROGRAMMES

Description of Individual Course Units

Offered By

Level of Course Unit

Course Coordinator

Offered to

Course Objective

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

Mode of Delivery

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

Recomended Optional Programme Components

Course Contents

Recomended or Required Reading

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

Assessment Methods

Further Notes About Assessment Methods

Assessment Criteria

Language of Instruction

Course Policies and Rules

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

Office Hours

Work Placement(s)

Workload Calculation

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

CONTACT INFORMATION