COURSE UNIT TITLE

: DECISION THEORY

DEGREE PROGRAMMES

Description of Individual Course Units

Course Unit Code Course Unit Title Type Of Course D U L ECTS
IST 3175 DECISION THEORY ELECTIVE 3 0 0 5

Offered By

Statistics

Level of Course Unit

First Cycle Programmes (Bachelor's Degree)

Course Coordinator

PROFESSOR DOCTOR ÖZLEM EGE ORUÇ

Offered to

Statistics
Statistics(Evening)

Course Objective

To introduce the methods for carrying out a rational decision process to determine the best decision alternative under risk and uncertainty. To gain theoretical and practical skills about applications of decision problems in finance and industry.

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

1   Defining basic concepts of decision problems
2   Using mathematical techniques to express decision problems
3   Finding the optimum by appropriate methods within alternatives to make decision under risk and uncertainty
4   Analyzing sequential decision problems
5   Interpreting the solutions of decision problems under risk and uncertainty
6   Interpreting the solutions of sequential decision problems
7   Gaining both theoretical and practical skills applying decision models to different areas

Mode of Delivery

Face -to- Face

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

None

Recomended Optional Programme Components

None

Course Contents

Week Subject Description
1 Introduction to decision theory and definition of decision problems
2 Decision making with uncertainty
3 Criteria of decision making under uncertainty
4 Decision making under risk
5 Criteria of decision making under risk
6 Introduction to utility theory
7 Utility theory: Behaviors towards risk
8 Utility Theory Problems
9 Sequential decisions and decision trees, components of decision trees
10 Sequential decision problems
11 Sample information in sequential decision making, expected value of sample information
12 Bayes Theorem and Making Decision with Sampling Information
13 Bayesian decision making: Binomial Distribution
14 Bayesian decision making: Normal Distribution

Recomended or Required Reading

Textbook(s):
N. Moralı, Istatistiksel Karar Teorisi, Aralık 1996.
Yardımcı kaynaklar:
1. H. Taha, Operations Research, McGraw Hill, 7th edition, 2003.
2. F.S. Hillier, G.J. Lieberman, Introduction to Operations Research, McGraw Hill, 1995.
3. W.L. Winston, Introduction to Operations Research, Applications and Applications, 3rd edition, Duxbury Press, 1994

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

Lecture, homework and problem solving.

Assessment Methods

SORTING NUMBER SHORT CODE LONG CODE FORMULA
1 MTE MIDTERM EXAM
2 ASG ASSIGNMENT
3 FIN FINAL EXAM
4 FCG FINAL COURSE GRADE MTE * 0.40 + ASG * 0.10 + FIN * 0.50
5 RST RESIT
6 FCGR FINAL COURSE GRADE (RESIT) MTE * 0.40 + ASG * 0.10 + RST * 0.50


Further Notes About Assessment Methods

None

Assessment Criteria

Evaluation of midterm exam and homework.

Language of Instruction

Turkish

Course Policies and Rules

Attendance to at least 70% for the lectures is an essential requirement of this course and is the responsibility of the student. It is necessary that attendance to the lecture and homework delivery must be on time. Any unethical behavior that occurs either in presentations or in exams will be dealt with as outlined in school policy. You can find the undergraduate policy at http://web.deu.edu.tr/fen

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

DEU Fen Fakültesi Istatistik Bölümü
e-posta: ozlem.ege@deu.edu.tr
Tel: 0232 301 85 58

Office Hours

To be announced.

Work Placement(s)

None

Workload Calculation

Activities Number Time (hours) Total Work Load (hours)
Lectures 13 3 39
Preparations before/after weekly lectures 12 2 24
Preparation for midterm exam 1 17 17
Preparation for final exam 1 23 23
Preparing assignments 1 4 4
Preparing presentations 1 2 2
Final 1 2 2
Midterm 1 2 2
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours) 113

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

PO/LOPO.1PO.2PO.3PO.4PO.5PO.6PO.7PO.8PO.9PO.10PO.11PO.12PO.13PO.14
LO.15
LO.252
LO.35444
LO.45444
LO.55444
LO.65444
LO.75444

CONTACT INFORMATION
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Cumhuriyet Bulvarı No: 144 35210 Alsancak / İZMİR
Phone: +90(232) 412 12 12 - Fax: +90 (232) 464 81 35

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